Careful now

We “may” have completed an ABC correction and are now headed up in another 5 waves.  We need to be careful at the two yellow lines.  The first one is the A=C off the recent lows, if it stalls there it might mean the primary trend is down.  The 2nd line is the 62% retracement of the last wave down.

Buy setup complete

So we have the buy setup earlier today.  Stop at $126.20.  In the beginning we don’t quite know if it’s a 1-2 setup or an A-B setup, so I’ve just labeled those two possibilities and then at some point hopefully we’ll be able to narrow down which is occurring.  I’ve been trying to set targets for my sells but it doesn’t seem to work, I am thinking that once we get to a 5th wave scenario I should just start looking for the opposite of my buy signals to get me out.

5 waves complete

So the 5 waves pushed farther than I thought, but actually it’s a very close 1:1 to the previous down wave which might indicate this is part of a corrective wave.  If $131.51 is taken out that would imply a wave 3 up is coming.  I don’t have good faith in that probability though, but we’ll see.  The other alternative is we’re winding up in 1-2 1-2 to the downside..  We would need to take out $130.50 to gain some clearer picture or a break of $123.45 to the downside.

On the plus side we have a possible buy signal on a break of $127.40 with a stop at say $126.25

Here is the chart if this is wave 2. We would get confirmation on a break above $130.50

Hmm

I fudged my stop lower to $128.50 for some gut feeling.  The DIA is close to completing a H&S pattern, a break of $115 would seal the deal.  SPY was unable to make a higher high but was within .02c of it, but that’s bearish.  The only positive is this decline today seems to be on very low volume.

I think we’re in a C wave though so looking for these 5 waves to finish and then see what kind of retrace we get.

Ok, moving stops is not a wise decision if the lower stop is going to get hit also.  =(

ED or LD?

Due to it’s position it should be a LD.  I would consider, if this pattern completes, it could be a wave 1 or wave A.  If it’s a wave 1 it would be part of some large wave 3 impules, while the wave A would be wave 1 of 3 of a larger ED.

I am not sure I want to short that $131 level in case this is a wave 3 impulse up.  But I will see if there is some short setup there, but my goal is to get in on a retrace of the LD, but we’ll see.  Predicting patterns is a nasty bad habit of mine.

I would also like to note that the dow is not exhibiting the same LD formation, so this might indeed be a wave 3.

Ok, it’s neither an ED or LD.  I have no idea what it is.  Today is a kind of low volume doji.  A break down here would be bear and a break up would be bull, Monday will decide.  Not much to update so no more charts. I have my stop at $129.

Still can go either way

I put up a large image since it’s hard to see on the small one.  This would be the bull count, we would need a break of today’s high to be sure this is going to be a five wave up, otherwise it was just an ABC.  The wave count does suggest a bullish count though as it’s going 5-3-5, but so does an ABC.  There was a sell signal at the first yellow circle which was a shooting star at the 162% extension and then the break below.  Near the end of the day there is a possible buy signal near the 38% retracement with a clear 1:1 ABC.

Need more sleep

Those olympics are keeping me up too late, can’t wake up in the morning.  Anyways there was a good possible entry this morning off the W pattern.

This formation so far doesn’t look like a flat, so I’m going to count it as a 1-2.  We’ll know by the end of the day.  We aren’t really out of the woods of a bear count until we make a new high above $131.51, so defense is still required.

*Update 1pm - SPY has reached the 162% extension at the yellow line.  Since we don’t know if this is an ABC or a 123, we would watch for a sell signal around this area and then look for a buy signal around one of the retracements.

Bulls in control?

Not sure.  We should have good support on the 20dma on S&P along with trendline support.  So two is better than one as they say.  If this decline is over then I am looking for at least 3 waves up.  The chart pattern so far does not look like an ED.  So either it’s going to go up in an impulse 3rd wave, or 3rd wave of the ED.  So five waves on the former and 3 waves on the latter.  There is still a bear count and we’re not really out of the woods until we break $129.85 on SPY.  If it finishes 3 waves and does not make a new high then we have to take into consideration wave C already finished and we might be going back to the lows

Buy signal

Ok, so not sure why I was all anxious today to jump into the market using 1min charts, probably due to my vacation and wanting to be “in” the market.  We finally get a real buy setup on the 3min chart which is better.  We also got the cross above zero on the oscillator.

Also note that there was never a higher high made on the 3min all day, even though the 1min gave the signal which whipsawed me to hell.

Stop at $127.60.  I’m all out of buying power for today though.

Doh!

I was right earlier, there was another wave down.  It’s 9:50am and we hit the 62% retracement, it needs to hold here or the bull count might be in danger.  I shouldn’t look at the minute chart.  Need to wait now for a W or double bottom or something.

This should be enough.  Buy $128.65, stop $128.20

Ok that didn’t work.  I really need to stop using 1min charts.  I’ll try again on a break of $128.80.

Ok, not waiting. Trying one last time for today.  Stop $127.90.  Wedge break and back-test along with elliot oscillator back over 0.  Target still the same.  $132.50.

Ok I am sucking today trying to pick that bottom.  This should be the correct ED. Not buying again until $128.80 is broken.

On a side-note this really can’t be a wave 4, the retrace is far too great.  If it makes a new high it has to be a 1-2 1-2 formation with wave 3 to come which is pointing up to $136. I don’t really believe it though.  An alternative is that wave C already completed and down down down we go…